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FINANCIAL MARKET COURSES

Economic Indicators – Business Cycles

The national accounts (primarily GDP) are the most comprehensive measure of economic activity available, and are also the most watched data because they amalgamate into a single framework all the different aspects that make up the total level of economic activity. However, GDP figures are only published on a quarterly basis in most economies, so the data are effectively out of date on the publication day. Furthermore, GDP incorporates a complex array of different aspects of the economy, which makes it subject to random factors and ‘noise’ that can obscure the underlying direction of economic activity.

 

Economists and market analysts therefore supplement GDP reports with a number of other economic indicators that are designed to interpret and forecast the business cycle. These indicators – leading, coincident, and lagging – are the focus of this course.

  • OBJECTIVES

    On completion of this course, you will be able to:

    Describe the four phases of the business cycle (expansion, peak, recession, and trough)

    Explain how leading indicators can be used to forecast turning points in the business cycle

    Identify the coincident indicators that are used to summarize the actual current state of the economy

    Describe how lagging indicators are used to confirm or refute inferences drawn from leading and coincident indicators

  • COURSE OUTLINE

    Topic 1: The Business Cycle

    Business Cycle Phases

    Interpreting & Forecasting the Business Cycle

    Topic 2: Leading Indicators

    What are Leading Indicators?

    Types of Leading Indicators

    Composite of Leading Indicators

    Examples of Leading Indicators

    Leading Indicators – Financial Markets’ Reaction

    Topic 3: Lagging Indicators

    What are Lagging Indicators?

    Examples of Lagging Indicators

    Topic 4: Coincident Indicators

    What are Coincident Indicators?

    Examples of Coincident Indicators

    Coincident Indicators – Financial Markets Reaction

  • PREREQUISITE KNOWLEDGE

  • ESTIMATED COMPLETED TIME

    90 Minutes

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